The noise components and are mutually uncorrelated and, naturally, uncorrelated with true unobserved GDP. Taking to be GDP and to be GDI, the information in likely would consist of personal consumption expenditures, investment, net exports, and the other components that sum to GDP, while the information in likely would consist of wage and salary income, corporate profits, proprietors' income.
Abstract. This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been considered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed.
Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks. 34 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2015. See all articles by William A. Barnett William A. Barnett. University of Kansas - Department of Economics. Marcelle Chauvet. University of California Riverside; University of California Riverside. Danilo Leiva-Leon. Central Bank of Chile. Date Written: September 1, 2014. Abstract. This paper provides a.
A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS 199 2010 37 9 1425; 72 Su, B; Heshmati, A; Geng, Y; Yu, XM A review of the circular economy in China: moving from rhetoric to implementation JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 197 2013 42 0 215; 73 Gerali, A; Neri, S; Sessa, L; Signoretti, FM Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the.
Different model types offer different advantages, in particular as regards robustness to structural breaks and extreme data outcomes or the possibility to interpret forecast revisions. ( 4 ) The 2015 review of the ECB’s short-term forecasting models was motivated by the deterioration in the (relative) performance of the models in the course of the global financial crisis and in its aftermath.
Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break William A. Barnetty University of Kansas and Center for Financial Stability Marcelle Chauvetz University of California Riverside Danilo Leiva-Leonx Bank of Canada Abstract This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been con-sidered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are.
The results show that tax increases (cuts) have a negative (positive) effect on real GDP: on impact, the elasticity of real GDP with respect to tax revenue (as a percentage of nominal GDP) is approximately -0.11, whereas the maximum elasticity is -0.22 after six quarters. After a tax increase (cut) of 1 percent of nominal GDP, tax revenue (as a percentage of nominal GDP) decreases (increases.
Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends' data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP, inflation, capital flows), conditional on other covariates.
Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP under structural breaks. By William A. Barnett, Marcelle Chauvet and Danilo Leiva-Leon. Get PDF (496 KB) Abstract. This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers.
Any nominal interest rate is a sum of the real interest rate and inflation expectations, and the same trend should affect the nominal interest rate as it affects inflation. I did try an exercise in which I modeled the fed funds rate as a deviation from the inflation trend, and the results for inflation were exactly the same. In addition, forecast accuracy for the federal funds rate was also.
After 10 years of stable growth slightly below 4% per year in Spain, the 2008 recession has provided an excellent opportunity to 'stress-test' our non-judgemental nowcasting models in real time.
Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP under structural breaks. (William A Barnett; Marcelle Chauvet; Danilo Leiva-Leon; Bank of Canada,) Home. WorldCat Home About WorldCat Help. Search. Search for Library Items Search for Lists Search for Contacts Search for a Library. Create lists, bibliographies and reviews: or Search WorldCat. Find items in libraries near you. Advanced Search Find a Library.
Based on 256 real-time data sets collected on the data releasing dates since 2008, it shows that our model well characterizes China's business cycle since 1992, and its estimation is robust and reliable with respect to GDP data revisions. In addition, there may exist about 2 to 8 month delays in real-time dating business cycle turning points. Furthermore, among all indicators released in turn.
Nowcasting US GDP in real time: A Bayesian mixed-frequency latent-threshold model with stochastic volatility: CO0201: K. Petrova: A quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to time varying parameter VAR models: CO0721: T. Renault, C. Bortoli, S. Combes: Nowcasting payroll employment with traditional media content: Session CG322: Room: 109: Contributions on business cycles: Saturday, 10.
This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real-time information arrives at different frequencies and asynchronously, which poses.
Abstract: An important economic paradox that frequently arises in the economic literature is that countries with abundant natural resources are poor in terms of real gross domestic product per capita. This paradox, known as the “resource curse,” is contrary to the conventional intuition that natural resources help to improve economic growth and prosperity. Using panel data for 95 countries.
Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013. Recommend Documents. No documents. Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013. Download PDF. 4 downloads 9 Views 1MB Size Report. Comment. ments of regional and industry conditions based on media reports, as well as the intelligence received. with the common factor, 8 of them are timely, with very short publication lags.. gate the volatility of.
Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks. Journal of Econometrics, 191(2), 312-324. Journal of Econometrics, 191(2), 312-324. Beirne, R. (2015).
Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment Jo elle Liebermann Abstract This paper assesses the ability of di erent models to forecast key real and nominal U.S. monthly macroeconomic variables in a data-rich environment from the perspective of a real-time forecaster, i.e. taking into account the real-time data revisions process and data ow. We nd that for the real variables predictability.